Why Indo-Pacific powers, including India, should worry about China’s new ballistic missile test

China tested its sea-based long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) marking its first-ever test of a submarine-based ballistic missile in international waters. 

Key Details of the Test

• The missile was reportedly launched from a submarine in the South China Sea.It carried a dummy warhead and travelled approximately 7,300 km before landing in the South Pacific Ocean.
• The missile reportedly flew over the Philippines and the Exclusive Economic Zones of Micronesia, Nauru, Kiribati and Tuvalu.
• The dummy warhead landed within the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone established under the Treaty of Rarotonga.

What Is Known About the Missile?

• It remains unclear whether the missile tested was the Ju Lang-2 or the more advanced Ju Lang-3.
• The JL-2 and JL-3 are submarine-launched ballistic missiles linked to China’s DF-31 and DF-41 missile programmes, respectively.
• The JL-2 has an estimated range of 8,000–9,000 km, while the JL-3 reportedly exceeds 9,000 km.
• These missiles can be deployed on China’s Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.

Why Is China Conducting Such Tests?

• China has accelerated the expansion and modernisation of its nuclear capabilities in recent years.
• It has constructed new missile silos, displayed advanced nuclear delivery systems and conducted long-range missile tests.
• The test strengthens China’s second-strike capability, allowing retaliation even after suffering a nuclear attack.
• It may also reflect China’s ambition to achieve great-power status and greater theatre-level nuclear dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

Is China’s Nuclear Strategy Changing?

• China officially follows a no-first-use policy and maintains a doctrine of assured nuclear retaliation.
• It also pledges not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or within nuclear-weapon-free zones.
• However, the growing size, diversity, accuracy and readiness of its nuclear forces suggest a shift away from minimum nuclear deterrence.
• China could possess around 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
• It is reportedly moving part of its nuclear force towards a “launch-on-warning” posture, known in China as an “early-warning counter-strike”

Strategic Implications of China’s Missile Test

Dimension	Implications for India	Implications for the Indo-Pacific and the United States
Nuclear balance	Widens the qualitative and quantitative gap between the nuclear capabilities of India and China.	Strengthens China’s strategic position and alters the regional balance of power.
Nuclear triad	India has operationalised its nuclear triad through Arihant-class submarines, but its submarine-launched missiles have shorter ranges.	Demonstrates the growing maturity and survivability of China’s land-, air- and sea-based nuclear forces.
Missile capability	Increases the urgency to develop and deploy longer-range K-5 and K-6 submarine-launched ballistic missiles.	Complicates US missile-defence planning and strategic calculations in the Indo-Pacific.
Maritime security	Requires stronger anti-submarine warfare capabilities and improved underwater and seabed domain awareness in the Indian Ocean Region.	Increases the difficulty and cost of tracking and countering Chinese nuclear submarines.
Second-strike capability	Chinese submarines operating from protected waters may reduce India’s ability to detect and monitor them.	Improves China’s ability to retaliate after a nuclear attack, strengthening its deterrence posture.
US strategic focus	A greater US focus on East Asia may influence India-US defence and security cooperation.	May compel the United States to divert more attention and resources from West Asia to East Asia.
Regional confidence	India may need to accelerate defence modernisation and strengthen partnerships with Indo-Pacific countries.	Uncertainty over long-term US security commitments may increase anxiety among regional allies and partners.