COP31 Hosts Australia and Türkiye Face the Fossil-Fuel Question

COP31 will be held in Antalya, Türkiye, in November 2026, with Türkiye hosting the summit and Australia leading the negotiations.

Unique COP31 Hosting Arrangement

• Türkiye will host COP31, with Environment Minister Murat Kurum serving as COP31 President.
• Australia will oversee negotiations, with Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen serving as Vice-President.
• This unusual power-sharing arrangement emerged after both countries had initially sought to host the summit.
• A pre-COP meeting will be held in Fiji on October 5–8, reflecting the concerns of Pacific Island countries.

Fossil-Fuel Dependence of the Hosts

• Both Australia and Türkiye remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels, creating scrutiny over their leadership of COP31.
• Australia is among the world’s largest fossil-fuel exporters and relies heavily on coal, gas and oil for domestic energy.
• Türkiye also relies significantly on fossil fuels while simultaneously expanding renewable energy and recycling initiatives.

COP31 Energy Priority

• A major COP31 objective is to accelerate electrification of industry, buildings and transport.
• The aim is to raise the share of final energy demand met by electricity from just over 20% currently to around 35% by 2035.
• Expansion of renewable energy is expected to accompany this electrification drive.
• Oceans and Seas have also been identified as an important COP31 agenda area.

Fossil-Fuel Roadmap

• At COP30 in Belém, the EU, Brazil and some other countries proposed a global “fossil-fuel roadmap” to guide transition away from fossil fuels.
• Many countries supported the initiative, but developing countries stressed that it should not overshadow demands for adaptation and climate finance.
• India did not oppose the concept but stressed adherence to Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC).
• International conferences on transitioning away from fossil fuels are also being used to build momentum for stronger COP language.

Loss and Damage & Climate Finance

• Recent extreme climate events are expected to strengthen demands for greater attention to loss and damage financing.
• Developing countries continue to call for adequate finance for adaptation, mitigation and climate-resilient development.
• Türkiye has highlighted the need to close the climate-finance gap and link ambitious climate plans with actual funding.

Key Challenge for COP31

• COP31 must balance demands for a stronger fossil-fuel phase-down/transition agenda with developing countries’ concerns over finance, equity and differentiated responsibilities.
• The credibility of the summit will partly depend on whether two fossil-fuel-dependent hosts can build consensus on a fair and practical energy transition.

COP31 will test whether global climate diplomacy can move from broad commitments towards an equitable transition away from fossil fuels while ensuring adequate finance for developing countries